Kelly Criterion & EV Optimization Mastery on Kalshi
Kelly in One Line
Fraction to stake = (edge − (1 − edge)) / odds. Positive edge, positive fraction.
Why Quarter-Kelly
Full Kelly maximizes growth but with brutal drawdowns. Most pros use 25% Kelly to stay solvent through variance.
EV Optimizer
The EV Optimizer ranks every candidate by expected value per dollar risked, so you deploy capital where it compounds fastest — not where the story is loudest.
FAQ
What if my edge estimate is wrong? Underestimate edge; overestimating is how accounts blow up.
