Building a Systematic Kalshi Trading Strategy
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Step 1 — Define the Edge You TrustStep 2 — Set a ThresholdStep 3 — Size With KellyStep 4 — Automate the Boring PartsStep 5 — Review WeeklyFAQStep 1 — Define the Edge You Trust
Pick 2–3 signals you understand (Spread, Volume Surge, Calibration Bias). Don't trade a signal you can't explain.
Step 2 — Set a Threshold
Score ≥ 70 is our candidate line. Backtest it against resolved history in the dashboard before going live.
Step 3 — Size With Kelly
The Kelly signal gives the mathematically optimal fraction. Most traders use quarter-Kelly to survive drawdowns.
Step 4 — Automate the Boring Parts
Use alerts (score > 70 or arb > 2¢) so you act on fresh edge instead of refreshing all day.
Step 5 — Review Weekly
The dashboard trend map shows which signals are heating up or cooling. Re-weight monthly.
FAQ
Do I need code? No. OddsPit exposes the scores, alerts, and CSV/JSON exports; you execute on Kalshi.
